Combat Edge Intelligence

Ayane Hirata vs Jessica Rakoczy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-4-0Record1-5-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
4'10"Height5'7"
-ReachTBD
108 lbsWeight115 lbs
BurstTeam

What's at stake

Ayane Hirata is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Jessica Rakoczy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ayane HirataNow 1492
If they win+20→ 1512
If they lose-28→ 1464
Jessica RakoczyNow 1429
If they win+28→ 1457
If they lose-20→ 1409

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1498 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.50
TBD
Strike accuracy
45%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.55
TBD
Strike defense
65%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.75
TBD
Takedown accuracy
20%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.75

Trajectory

Ayane HirataJessica Rakoczy
14501500155020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (75%)
KO/TKO
1 (100%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (25%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Ayane Hirata78%
Jessica Rakoczy 22%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Ayane Hirata a 78% favorite over Jessica Rakoczy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Ayane Hirata holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1492 to 1429, a 63-point edge.

Ayane Hirata enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jessica Rakoczy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ayane Hirata finishes 75% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.