Ayane Hirata vs Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-4-0Record6-4-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
4'10"Height5'7"
-Reach64.00
108 lbsWeight115 lbs
BurstTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Ayane Hirata is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1511
If they lose-29→ 1463
If they win+29→ 1455
If they lose-19→ 1407
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ayane HirataJocelyn Jones-Lybarger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ayane Hirata83%
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger 17%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Ayane Hirata a 83% favorite over Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Ayane Hirata holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1492 to 1426, a 66-point edge.
Ayane Hirata enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ayane Hirata finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger 17%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.