Combat Edge Intelligence

Azat Maksum vs Matheus Nicolau

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-3-0Record19-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'6"
70"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Octagon Fight TeamTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Azat MaksumNow 1664
If they win+16→ 1680
If they lose-16→ 1648
Matheus NicolauNow 1663
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.24
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
29%
Strike accuracy
52%
5
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.98
52%
Strike defense
66%
2.33
Takedown avg.
1.22
28%
Takedown accuracy
43%
86%
Takedown defense
90%
0.33
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Azat MaksumMatheus Nicolau
16501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
6 (40%)
Submission
5 (26%)
5 (33%)
Decision
9 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Azat Maksum60%
Matheus Nicolau 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Azat Maksum a 60% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1664 vs 1663), separated by just 1 points.

Azat Maksum enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Azat Maksum finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.

Azat Maksum and Matheus Nicolau share 1 common opponent: Alan Gabriel.

Azat Maksum carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2022
Alan Gabriel
WinSubmission (D'arce Choke) · 2019