Combat Edge Intelligence

Bartosz Fabinski vs Hector Urbina

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-6-0Record17-11-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach73,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
WCA Fight TeamTeamTBD

What's at stake

Bartosz Fabinski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Hector Urbina carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bartosz FabinskiNow 1634
If they win+13→ 1647
If they lose-19→ 1615
Hector UrbinaNow 1566
If they win+14→ 1580
If they lose-10→ 1556

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.23
Sig. strikes / min
0.97
68%
Strike accuracy
39%
1.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.44
51%
Strike defense
39%
7.10
Takedown avg.
0
71%
Takedown accuracy
0%
80%
Takedown defense
38%
0
Submission avg.
3.82

Trajectory

Bartosz FabinskiHector Urbina
1550160016502015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (50%)
KO/TKO
9 (56%)
0 (0%)
Submission
5 (31%)
8 (50%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Bartosz Fabinski60%
Hector Urbina 40%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Bartosz Fabinski a 60% favorite over Hector Urbina in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Bartosz Fabinski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1634 to 1566, a 68-point edge.

Hector Urbina enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bartosz Fabinski finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Hector Urbina 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.