Bec Rawlings vs Paige VanZant
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-9-0Record8-5-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'4"
64,0"Reach65"
116 lbsWeight125 lbs
Alliance MMATeamGracie Barra Portland
What's at stake
Paige VanZant is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Bec Rawlings carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1522
If they lose-13→ 1490
If they win+13→ 1587
If they lose-19→ 1555
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bec RawlingsPaige VanZant
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paige VanZant72%
Bec Rawlings 28%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Paige VanZant a 72% favorite over Bec Rawlings in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Paige VanZant holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1574 to 1503, a 71-point edge.
Bec Rawlings finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Paige VanZant 63%.
Bec Rawlings and Paige VanZant share 1 common opponent: Jessica-Rose Clark.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.