Belal Muhammad vs Demian Maia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-6-0Record28-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72''ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
RoufusportTeamDemian Maia Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Belal Muhammad is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Demian Maia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1816
If they lose-13→ 1792
If they win+13→ 1787
If they lose-11→ 1763
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1769 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1768 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Belal MuhammadDemian Maia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Belal Muhammad66%
Demian Maia 34%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Belal Muhammad a 66% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Belal Muhammad holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1805 to 1774, a 31-point edge.
Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Belal Muhammad finishes 25% of wins inside the distance, Demian Maia 61%.
Belal Muhammad and Demian Maia share 1 common opponent: Gilbert Burns.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.