Belal Muhammad vs Geoff Neal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-6-0Record16-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
72''Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Roufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Belal Muhammad is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Geoff Neal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1813
If they lose-16→ 1789
If they win+21→ 1714
If they lose-11→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1769 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Belal MuhammadGeoff Neal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Belal Muhammad70%
Geoff Neal 30%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Belal Muhammad a 70% favorite over Geoff Neal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Belal Muhammad holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1805 to 1693, a 112-point edge.
Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Belal Muhammad finishes 25% of wins inside the distance, Geoff Neal 75%.
Belal Muhammad and Geoff Neal share 3 common opponents: Ian Machado Garry, Vicente Luque and Stephen Thompson.
Geoff Neal carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.