Belal Muhammad vs Matt Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-6-0Record45-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
72''Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
RoufusportTeamHIT Squad
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1817
If they lose-12→ 1793
If they win+12→ 1819
If they lose-12→ 1795
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1769 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Belal MuhammadMatt Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Belal Muhammad70%
Matt Hughes 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Belal Muhammad a 70% favorite over Matt Hughes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Hughes's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1805 vs 1807), separated by just 2 points.
Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Belal Muhammad finishes 25% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hughes 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.