Belal Muhammad vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-6-0Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72''Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
RoufusportTeamTeam Upstate Karate
What's at stake
Belal Muhammad is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Stephen Thompson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1814
If they lose-15→ 1790
If they win+21→ 1723
If they lose-11→ 1691
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1769 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Belal MuhammadStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Belal Muhammad79%
Stephen Thompson 21%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Belal Muhammad a 79% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Belal Muhammad holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1805 to 1702, a 103-point edge.
Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Belal Muhammad finishes 25% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Belal Muhammad and Stephen Thompson share 3 common opponents: Gabriel Bonfim, Gilbert Burns and Vicente Luque.
Stephen Thompson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.