Combat Edge Intelligence

Ben Askren vs Robbie Lawler

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Ben Askren
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Ben Askren

“Funky”

19-2-0WelterweightUFC

1792Great

Tale of the tape

19-2-0Record30-16-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
72"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
RoufusportTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ben AskrenNow 1792
If they win+16→ 1808
If they lose-16→ 1776
Robbie LawlerNow 1788
If they win+12→ 1800
If they lose-12→ 1776

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.64
Sig. strikes / min
3.85
49%
Strike accuracy
47%
5.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.67
36%
Strike defense
59%
4.33
Takedown avg.
0.65
56%
Takedown accuracy
64%
0%
Takedown defense
65%
0.87
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ben AskrenRobbie Lawler
175018001850201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

6 (32%)
KO/TKO
22 (73%)
6 (32%)
Submission
1 (3%)
7 (37%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Ben Askren58%
Robbie Lawler 42%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Ben Askren a 58% favorite over Robbie Lawler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1792 vs 1788), separated by just 4 points.

Ben Askren enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ben Askren finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.

Robbie Lawler carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.