Combat Edge Intelligence

Ben Johnston vs Nate Loughran

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-2-0Record11-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'4"Height6'2"
75"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
The Fight CentreTeamNor-Cal Fighting Alliance

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ben JohnstonNow 1569
If they win+24→ 1593
If they lose-24→ 1545
Nate LoughranNow 1566
If they win+24→ 1590
If they lose-24→ 1542

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1508 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
1.81
TBD
Strike accuracy
40%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.11
TBD
Strike defense
60%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
2.09

Trajectory

Ben JohnstonNate Loughran
15501600201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
1 (9%)
4 (80%)
Submission
8 (73%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Ben Johnston70%
Nate Loughran 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ben Johnston a 70% favorite over Nate Loughran in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1569 vs 1566), separated by just 3 points.

Nate Loughran enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ben Johnston finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Nate Loughran 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.