Ben Rothwell vs Brendan Schaub
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
39-14-0Record10-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
78"ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight238 lbs
Rothwell MMATeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Ben Rothwell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brendan Schaub carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1724
If they lose-13→ 1700
If they win+17→ 1699
If they lose-15→ 1667
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1688 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ben RothwellBrendan Schaub
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brendan Schaub60%
Ben Rothwell 40%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Schaub a 60% favorite over Ben Rothwell in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ben Rothwell's way (46%).
Ben Rothwell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1682, a 31-point edge.
Brendan Schaub enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ben Rothwell finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Brendan Schaub 80%.
Ben Rothwell and Brendan Schaub share 2 common opponents: Andrei Arlovski and Matt Mitrione.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.