Ben Rothwell vs Cain Velasquez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
39-14-0Record14-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
78"Reach77"
265 lbsWeight241 lbs
Rothwell MMATeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy
What's at stake
Cain Velasquez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ben Rothwell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1726
If they lose-11→ 1702
If they win+15→ 1752
If they lose-17→ 1720
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1741 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ben RothwellCain Velasquez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cain Velasquez70%
Ben Rothwell 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Cain Velasquez a 70% favorite over Ben Rothwell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Cain Velasquez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1737 to 1713, a 24-point edge.
Ben Rothwell finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Cain Velasquez 86%.
Ben Rothwell and Cain Velasquez share 1 common opponent: Junior dos Santos.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.