Ben Rothwell vs Gabriel Gonzaga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
39-14-0Record17-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
78"Reach42,0"
265 lbsWeight264 lbs
Rothwell MMATeamTeam Link
What's at stake
Ben Rothwell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Gabriel Gonzaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1722
If they lose-15→ 1698
If they win+15→ 1627
If they lose-9→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ben RothwellGabriel Gonzaga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ben Rothwell72%
Gabriel Gonzaga 28%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Ben Rothwell a 72% favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Ben Rothwell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1612, a 101-point edge.
Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ben Rothwell finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Gabriel Gonzaga 94%.
Ben Rothwell and Gabriel Gonzaga share 1 common opponent: Matt Mitrione.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.