Combat Edge Intelligence

Ben Rothwell vs Matt Mitrione

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

39-14-0Record13-9-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
78"Reach43,0"
265 lbsWeight255 lbs
Rothwell MMATeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Ben Rothwell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Matt Mitrione carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ben RothwellNow 1713
If they win+9→ 1722
If they lose-15→ 1698
Matt MitrioneNow 1632
If they win+20→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1620

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1707 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.71
Sig. strikes / min
3.55
43%
Strike accuracy
50%
4.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.79
47%
Strike defense
65%
0.68
Takedown avg.
0
34%
Takedown accuracy
0%
70%
Takedown defense
55%
0.41
Submission avg.
0.68

Trajectory

Ben RothwellMatt Mitrione
165017001750201920202021

Win method breakdown

28 (72%)
KO/TKO
11 (85%)
7 (18%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (10%)
Decision
2 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Ben Rothwell78%
Matt Mitrione 22%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Ben Rothwell a 78% favorite over Matt Mitrione in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Ben Rothwell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1632, a 81-point edge.

Matt Mitrione enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Ben Rothwell finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Matt Mitrione 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.