Combat Edge Intelligence

Ben Saunders vs Chris Heatherly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-13-2Record9-4-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height5'8"
45,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight180 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamFit or Fight

What's at stake

Ben Saunders is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Chris Heatherly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ben SaundersNow 1667
If they win+10→ 1677
If they lose-14→ 1653
Chris HeatherlyNow 1604
If they win+19→ 1623
If they lose-13→ 1591

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.23
Sig. strikes / min
1.68
50%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.58
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
8.27
51%
Strike defense
52%
0.20
Takedown avg.
4.21
40%
Takedown accuracy
50%
67%
Takedown defense
100%
1.30
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ben SaundersChris Heatherly
16001650170020142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

11 (48%)
KO/TKO
1 (11%)
6 (26%)
Submission
4 (44%)
6 (26%)
Decision
4 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Ben Saunders and Chris Heatherly within a point of even.

Ben Saunders holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1667 to 1604, a 63-point edge.

Ben Saunders finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Chris Heatherly 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.