Combat Edge Intelligence

Ben Saunders vs Peter Sobotta

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-13-2Record17-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'0"
45,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamPlanet Eater· 1649 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ben SaundersNow 1666
If they win+12→ 1678
If they lose-12→ 1654
Peter SobottaNow 1652
If they win+12→ 1664
If they lose-12→ 1640

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.23
Sig. strikes / min
2.14
50%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.58
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.90
51%
Strike defense
59%
0.20
Takedown avg.
1.53
40%
Takedown accuracy
32%
67%
Takedown defense
78%
1.30
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Ben SaundersPeter Sobotta
16501700201920202021

Win method breakdown

11 (48%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
6 (26%)
Submission
10 (59%)
6 (26%)
Decision
2 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Peter Sobotta60%
Ben Saunders 40%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Peter Sobotta a 60% favorite over Ben Saunders in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ben Saunders's way (48%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1666 vs 1652), separated by just 14 points.

Peter Sobotta enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ben Saunders finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Peter Sobotta 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.