Benito Lopez vs Mario Bautista
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record18-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'9"
73"Reach69"
139 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Mario Bautista is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Benito Lopez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1682
If they lose-10→ 1650
If they win+10→ 1800
If they lose-22→ 1768
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Benito LopezMario Bautista
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mario Bautista92%
Benito Lopez 8%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 92% favorite over Benito Lopez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Mario Bautista holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1790 to 1660, a 130-point edge.
Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Benito Lopez finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mario Bautista 56%.
Benito Lopez carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.