Bethe Correia vs Shayna Baszler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-6-1Record15-11-0
BantamweightDivisionLightweight
5'4"Height5'7"
64,0"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight153 lbs
CM SystemTeamUWF USA
What's at stake
Bethe Correia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Shayna Baszler carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1606
If they lose-19→ 1574
If they win+14→ 1548
If they lose-10→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1614 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bethe CorreiaShayna Baszler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bethe Correia72%
Shayna Baszler 28%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Bethe Correia a 72% favorite over Shayna Baszler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Bethe Correia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1593 to 1534, a 59-point edge.
Bethe Correia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Shayna Baszler enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Bethe Correia finishes 18% of wins inside the distance, Shayna Baszler 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.