Bill Algeo vs Spike Carlyle
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record15-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
73"Reach39,0"
146 lbsWeight156 lbs
Team Titan PATeamKings MMA· 1670 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Spike Carlyle is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Bill Algeo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1679
If they lose-11→ 1655
If they win+15→ 1697
If they lose-17→ 1665
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1676 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Bill AlgeoSpike Carlyle
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Spike Carlyle54%
Bill Algeo 46%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Spike Carlyle a 54% favorite over Bill Algeo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Spike Carlyle holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1666, a 16-point edge.
Bill Algeo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Bill Algeo finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Spike Carlyle 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.