Bill Algeo vs TJ Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record20-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
73"Reach72"
146 lbsWeight156 lbs
Team Titan PATeamWestside MMA
What's at stake
Bill Algeo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — TJ Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1674
If they lose-14→ 1650
If they win+14→ 1615
If they lose-10→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bill AlgeoTJ Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bill Algeo62%
TJ Brown 38%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Bill Algeo a 62% favorite over TJ Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Bill Algeo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1601, a 63-point edge.
Bill Algeo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Bill Algeo finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, TJ Brown 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.