BJ Penn vs Clay Guida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record38-25-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
70"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
BJ Penn is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1626
If they lose-13→ 1602
If they win+13→ 1612
If they lose-11→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennClay Guida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
BJ Penn63%
Clay Guida 37%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes BJ Penn a 63% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
BJ Penn holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1599, a 16-point edge.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Clay Guida 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.