Combat Edge Intelligence

BJ Penn vs Dennis Siver

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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BJ Penn
us

BJ Penn

“The Prodigy”

16-14-2FeatherweightUFC

1615Solid

Tale of the tape

16-14-2Record23-11-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'7"
70"Reach70,0"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamKiboju

What's at stake

Dennis Siver is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — BJ Penn carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

BJ PennNow 1615
If they win+14→ 1629
If they lose-10→ 1605
Dennis SiverNow 1668
If they win+10→ 1678
If they lose-14→ 1654

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.76
Sig. strikes / min
3.87
49%
Strike accuracy
32%
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.67
57%
Strike defense
65%
1.19
Takedown avg.
0.87
55%
Takedown accuracy
33%
75%
Takedown defense
65%
0.51
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

BJ PennDennis Siver
1600165020152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

7 (44%)
KO/TKO
7 (30%)
6 (38%)
Submission
7 (30%)
3 (19%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Dennis Siver67%
BJ Penn 33%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Dennis Siver a 67% favorite over BJ Penn in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Dennis Siver holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1668 to 1615, a 53-point edge.

BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.

BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Dennis Siver 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.