BJ Penn vs Din Thomas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record26-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
70"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight143 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
BJ Penn is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Din Thomas carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1626
If they lose-13→ 1602
If they win+13→ 1588
If they lose-11→ 1564
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennDin Thomas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
BJ Penn78%
Din Thomas 22%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes BJ Penn a 78% favorite over Din Thomas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
BJ Penn holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1575, a 40-point edge.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Din Thomas 85%.
BJ Penn and Din Thomas share 1 common opponent: Clay Guida.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.