BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record24-11-1
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'6"
70"Reach 68"
145 lbsWeight136 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamRicardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Frankie Edgar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — BJ Penn carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1630
If they lose-9→ 1606
If they win+9→ 1701
If they lose-15→ 1677
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1719 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennFrankie Edgar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Frankie Edgar78%
BJ Penn 22%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Frankie Edgar a 78% favorite over BJ Penn in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Frankie Edgar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1692 to 1615, a 77-point edge.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Frankie Edgar 46%.
BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar share 1 common opponent: Yair Rodriguez.
BJ Penn carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.