BJ Penn vs James Llontop
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record14-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
70"Reach73″
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamTeam FFC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1627
If they lose-12→ 1603
If they win+16→ 1631
If they lose-16→ 1599
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennJames Llontop
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
James Llontop67%
BJ Penn 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes James Llontop a 67% favorite over BJ Penn in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans BJ Penn's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1615 vs 1615), separated by just 0 points.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
James Llontop enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, James Llontop 57%.
James Llontop carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.