Combat Edge Intelligence

BJ Penn vs Joe Giannetti

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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BJ Penn
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BJ Penn

“The Prodigy”

16-14-2FeatherweightUFC

1615Solid

Tale of the tape

16-14-2Record16-5-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
70"Reach42,0"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamSouth Shore Sportfighting

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

BJ PennNow 1615
If they win+12→ 1627
If they lose-12→ 1603
Joe GiannettiNow 1619
If they win+16→ 1635
If they lose-16→ 1603

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.76
Sig. strikes / min
1.93
49%
Strike accuracy
39%
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
57%
Strike defense
41%
1.19
Takedown avg.
1
55%
Takedown accuracy
17%
75%
Takedown defense
0%
0.51
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

BJ PennJoe Giannetti
1600165020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (44%)
KO/TKO
6 (38%)
6 (38%)
Submission
8 (50%)
3 (19%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Joe Giannetti60%
BJ Penn 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Joe Giannetti a 60% favorite over BJ Penn in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1615 vs 1619), separated by just 4 points.

BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.

BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Joe Giannetti 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.