BJ Penn vs Joey Gilbert
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record2-3-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'5"
70"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight154 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamGilbert Grappling
What's at stake
BJ Penn is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Joey Gilbert carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1622
If they lose-17→ 1598
If they win+33→ 1506
If they lose-15→ 1458
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennJoey Gilbert
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
BJ Penn83%
Joey Gilbert 17%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes BJ Penn a 83% favorite over Joey Gilbert in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
BJ Penn holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1473, a 142-point edge.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.