BJ Penn vs Lucas Corbage
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record13-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"Reach-
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamNova Uniao Argentina
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1627
If they lose-12→ 1603
If they win+16→ 1631
If they lose-16→ 1599
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennLucas Corbage
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
BJ Penn58%
Lucas Corbage 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes BJ Penn a 58% favorite over Lucas Corbage in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1615 vs 1615), separated by just 0 points.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Corbage 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.