BJ Penn vs Matt Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record45-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
70"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight170 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamHIT Squad
What's at stake
Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — BJ Penn carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1633
If they lose-6→ 1609
If they win+6→ 1813
If they lose-18→ 1789
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennMatt Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hughes70%
BJ Penn 30%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 70% favorite over BJ Penn in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1615, a 192-point edge.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hughes 78%.
Matt Hughes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.