BJ Penn vs Matt Serra
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record11-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'6"
70"Reach68"
145 lbsWeight170 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamSerra-Longo Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1627
If they lose-12→ 1603
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennMatt Serra
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
BJ Penn53%
Matt Serra 47%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes BJ Penn a 53% favorite over Matt Serra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1615 vs 1605), separated by just 10 points.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Matt Serra 64%.
BJ Penn and Matt Serra share 1 common opponent: Matt Hughes.
BJ Penn carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.