BJ Penn vs Mohammad Fahmi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record5-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
70"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamSpecial Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1627
If they lose-12→ 1603
If they win+24→ 1638
If they lose-24→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennMohammad Fahmi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mohammad Fahmi76%
BJ Penn 24%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mohammad Fahmi a 76% favorite over BJ Penn in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans BJ Penn's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1615 vs 1614), separated by just 1 points.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Mohammad Fahmi 71%.
Mohammad Fahmi carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.