BJ Penn vs Nick Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record26-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
70"Reach76"
145 lbsWeight185 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nick Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — BJ Penn carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1632
If they lose-7→ 1608
If they win+7→ 1766
If they lose-17→ 1742
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennNick Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nick Diaz83%
BJ Penn 17%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Nick Diaz a 83% favorite over BJ Penn in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Nick Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1615, a 144-point edge.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
Nick Diaz enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Nick Diaz 81%.
Nick Diaz carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.