BJ Penn vs Paul Creighton
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record3-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'6"
70"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
BJ Penn is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Paul Creighton carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1624
If they lose-15→ 1600
If they win+30→ 1556
If they lose-18→ 1508
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennPaul Creighton
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
BJ Penn61%
Paul Creighton 39%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes BJ Penn a 61% favorite over Paul Creighton in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
BJ Penn holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1526, a 89-point edge.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Paul Creighton 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.