BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record23-10-1
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
70"Reach76.00
145 lbsWeight170 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Rory MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — BJ Penn carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1631
If they lose-8→ 1607
If they win+8→ 1749
If they lose-16→ 1725
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rory MacDonald83%
BJ Penn 17%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 83% favorite over BJ Penn in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Rory MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1615, a 126-point edge.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
BJ Penn and Rory MacDonald share 1 common opponent: Jon Fitch.
Rory MacDonald carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.