BJ Penn vs Yair Rodriguez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-2Record20-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
70"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamValle Flow Striking· 1678 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Yair Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — BJ Penn carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1632
If they lose-7→ 1608
If they win+10→ 1762
If they lose-22→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
BJ PennYair Rodriguez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yair Rodriguez76%
BJ Penn 24%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Yair Rodriguez a 76% favorite over BJ Penn in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Yair Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1752 to 1615, a 137-point edge.
BJ Penn enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
BJ Penn finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Yair Rodriguez 65%.
BJ Penn and Yair Rodriguez share 1 common opponent: Frankie Edgar.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.