Combat Edge Intelligence

Bogdan Guskov vs Zac Pauga

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Zac Pauga
us

Zac Pauga

“The Ripper”

7-4-0Light HeavyweightXFC

1571Solid

Tale of the tape

18-3-0Record7-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
76"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
GOR MMATeamElevation Fight Team

What's at stake

Bogdan Guskov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Zac Pauga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bogdan GuskovNow 1733
If they win+9→ 1742
If they lose-23→ 1710
Zac PaugaNow 1571
If they win+23→ 1594
If they lose-9→ 1562

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1592 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.87
Sig. strikes / min
4.46
51%
Strike accuracy
63%
3.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.73
50%
Strike defense
59%
0
Takedown avg.
0.38
TBD
Takedown accuracy
8%
50%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Bogdan GuskovZac Pauga
155016001650170017502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (83%)
KO/TKO
1 (14%)
3 (17%)
Submission
1 (14%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (71%)

Combat Edge model read

Bogdan Guskov92%
Zac Pauga 8%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Bogdan Guskov a 92% favorite over Zac Pauga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Bogdan Guskov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1733 to 1571, a 162-point edge.

Bogdan Guskov finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Zac Pauga 29%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.