Brad Blackburn vs Ryo Chonan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-13-1Record22-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
169 lbsWeight169 lbs
Victory AthleticsTeamTribe Tokyo MMA· 1627 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Ryo Chonan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Brad Blackburn carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1527
If they lose-9→ 1495
If they win+7→ 1680
If they lose-17→ 1656
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1591 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brad BlackburnRyo Chonan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Chonan75%
Brad Blackburn 25%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Chonan a 75% favorite over Brad Blackburn in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Ryo Chonan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1504, a 169-point edge.
Brad Blackburn enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ryo Chonan enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Brad Blackburn finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Chonan 41%.
Brad Blackburn and Ryo Chonan share 1 common opponent: Dan Hornbuckle.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (1)
Loss Decision · 2010
Win Decision · 2013