Brad Katona vs Matthew Lopez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record10-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
64"Reach69.00
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Brad Katona is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Matthew Lopez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1666
If they lose-22→ 1634
If they win+33→ 1545
If they lose-15→ 1497
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brad KatonaMatthew Lopez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brad Katona61%
Matthew Lopez 39%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Brad Katona a 61% favorite over Matthew Lopez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Brad Katona holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1656 to 1512, a 144-point edge.
Brad Katona enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matthew Lopez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brad Katona finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Lopez 80%.
Matthew Lopez carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.