Brad Morris vs Cain Velasquez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record14-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
TBDReach77"
253 lbsWeight241 lbs
Gracie Barra SydneyTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1637 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Cain Velasquez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Brad Morris carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1614
If they lose-10→ 1582
If they win+10→ 1746
If they lose-22→ 1714
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1738 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brad MorrisCain Velasquez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cain Velasquez80%
Brad Morris 20%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Cain Velasquez a 80% favorite over Brad Morris in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Cain Velasquez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1592, a 144-point edge.
Brad Morris enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brad Morris finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Cain Velasquez 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.