Combat Edge Intelligence

Brad Morris vs Cain Velasquez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record14-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
TBDReach77"
253 lbsWeight241 lbs
Gracie Barra SydneyTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Cain Velasquez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Brad Morris carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brad MorrisNow 1592
If they win+22→ 1614
If they lose-10→ 1582
Cain VelasquezNow 1737
If they win+10→ 1747
If they lose-22→ 1715

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1741 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.50
Sig. strikes / min
6.37
63%
Strike accuracy
58%
6.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.33
28%
Strike defense
57%
0
Takedown avg.
5.13
0%
Takedown accuracy
45%
0%
Takedown defense
86%
0
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Brad MorrisCain Velasquez
160016501700175020092010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
12 (86%)
4 (40%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (30%)
Decision
2 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Cain Velasquez79%
Brad Morris 21%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Cain Velasquez a 79% favorite over Brad Morris in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Cain Velasquez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1737 to 1592, a 145-point edge.

Brad Morris enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Brad Morris finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Cain Velasquez 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.