Brad Pickett vs Michael McDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-14-0Record19-4-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
68,0"Reach70,0"
125 lbsWeight136 lbs
American Top TeamTeamLast Stand Fight Team
What's at stake
Michael McDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brad Pickett carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1638
If they lose-8→ 1614
If they win+11→ 1746
If they lose-21→ 1714
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1665 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brad PickettMichael McDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael McDonald83%
Brad Pickett 17%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael McDonald a 83% favorite over Brad Pickett in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Michael McDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1622, a 113-point edge.
Brad Pickett enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Michael McDonald enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Brad Pickett finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Michael McDonald 84%.
Brad Pickett and Michael McDonald share 1 common opponent: Urijah Faber.
Michael McDonald carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.