Brad Pickett vs Renan Barão
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-14-0Record34-10-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
68,0"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
American Top TeamTeamPitbull Brothers
What's at stake
Brad Pickett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Renan Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1633
If they lose-13→ 1609
If they win+17→ 1615
If they lose-15→ 1583
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1665 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brad PickettRenan Barão
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Renan Barão56%
Brad Pickett 44%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Renan Barão a 56% favorite over Brad Pickett in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brad Pickett's way (47%).
Brad Pickett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1622 to 1598, a 24-point edge.
Brad Pickett enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Brad Pickett finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Renan Barão 68%.
Renan Barão carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.