Combat Edge Intelligence

Brad Tavares vs Caio Magalhaes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-12-0Record10-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
74"Reach73.00
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeixeira MMA & Fitness

What's at stake

Brad Tavares is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Caio Magalhaes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brad TavaresNow 1698
If they win+7→ 1705
If they lose-17→ 1681
Caio MagalhaesNow 1545
If they win+34→ 1579
If they lose-14→ 1531

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.42
Sig. strikes / min
2.27
43%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.36
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.78
55%
Strike defense
56%
0.73
Takedown avg.
1.05
27%
Takedown accuracy
15%
81%
Takedown defense
58%
0
Submission avg.
1.58

Trajectory

Brad TavaresCaio Magalhaes
155016001650170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
2 (10%)
Submission
4 (40%)
14 (67%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Brad Tavares86%
Caio Magalhaes 14%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Brad Tavares a 86% favorite over Caio Magalhaes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Brad Tavares holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1545, a 153-point edge.

Brad Tavares enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Caio Magalhaes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Brad Tavares finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Caio Magalhaes 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.