Combat Edge Intelligence

Brad Tavares vs Dricus Du Plessis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-12-0Record24-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach76″
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeam CIT· 1712 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

Dricus Du Plessis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Brad Tavares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brad TavaresNow 1698
If they win+17→ 1715
If they lose-7→ 1691
Dricus Du PlessisNow 1853
If they win+7→ 1860
If they lose-17→ 1836

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1779 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.41
Sig. strikes / min
5.18
44%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.33
55%
Strike defense
53%
0.70
Takedown avg.
2.22
25%
Takedown accuracy
5%
80%
Takedown defense
35%
0
Submission avg.
0.71

Trajectory

Brad TavaresDricus Du Plessis
1700175018001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
9 (38%)
2 (10%)
Submission
11 (46%)
14 (67%)
Decision
4 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Dricus Du Plessis92%
Brad Tavares 8%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Dricus Du Plessis a 92% favorite over Brad Tavares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Dricus Du Plessis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1853 to 1698, a 155-point edge.

Brad Tavares enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brad Tavares finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Dricus Du Plessis 83%.

Dricus Du Plessis carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.