Combat Edge Intelligence

Brad Tavares vs Lorenz Larkin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

21-12-0Record27-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
74"Reach73"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamMillennia MMA

What's at stake

Lorenz Larkin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Brad Tavares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brad TavaresNow 1698
If they win+14→ 1712
If they lose-10→ 1688
Lorenz LarkinNow 1766
If they win+10→ 1776
If they lose-14→ 1752

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.42
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
43%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.36
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.74
55%
Strike defense
64%
0.73
Takedown avg.
0.27
27%
Takedown accuracy
43%
81%
Takedown defense
79%
0
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Brad TavaresLorenz Larkin
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
15 (56%)
2 (10%)
Submission
0 (0%)
14 (67%)
Decision
12 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Lorenz Larkin55%
Brad Tavares 45%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Lorenz Larkin a 55% favorite over Brad Tavares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Lorenz Larkin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1698, a 68-point edge.

Brad Tavares enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Brad Tavares finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Lorenz Larkin 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.