Combat Edge Intelligence

Brad Tavares vs Nate Marquardt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-12-0Record36-20-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach42,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamHigh Altitude Martial Arts

What's at stake

Brad Tavares is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nate Marquardt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brad TavaresNow 1698
If they win+10→ 1708
If they lose-14→ 1684
Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+14→ 1665
If they lose-10→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.41
Sig. strikes / min
2.71
44%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
55%
Strike defense
56%
0.70
Takedown avg.
1.87
25%
Takedown accuracy
51%
80%
Takedown defense
71%
0
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Brad TavaresNate Marquardt
16501700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
13 (36%)
2 (10%)
Submission
15 (42%)
14 (67%)
Decision
8 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Brad Tavares79%
Nate Marquardt 21%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Brad Tavares a 79% favorite over Nate Marquardt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Brad Tavares holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1651, a 47-point edge.

Brad Tavares enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brad Tavares finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Nate Marquardt 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.