Combat Edge Intelligence

Brad Tavares vs Omari Akhmedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-12-0Record24-8-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Omari Akhmedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brad Tavares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brad TavaresNow 1698
If they win+13→ 1711
If they lose-11→ 1687
Omari AkhmedovNow 1715
If they win+11→ 1726
If they lose-13→ 1702

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.41
Sig. strikes / min
2.97
44%
Strike accuracy
34%
3.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.84
55%
Strike defense
56%
0.70
Takedown avg.
2.58
25%
Takedown accuracy
46%
80%
Takedown defense
66%
0
Submission avg.
0.25

Trajectory

Brad TavaresOmari Akhmedov
170017502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
8 (33%)
2 (10%)
Submission
7 (29%)
14 (67%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Brad Tavares and Omari Akhmedov within a point of even.

Omari Akhmedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1698, a 17-point edge.

Brad Tavares enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brad Tavares finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Omari Akhmedov 63%.

Brad Tavares and Omari Akhmedov share 1 common opponent: Chris Weidman.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

WinDecision - Unanimous · 2023
Chris Weidman
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2020