Combat Edge Intelligence

Brad Tavares vs Thales Leites

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-12-0Record28-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
74"Reach78,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Thales Leites is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Brad Tavares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brad TavaresNow 1698
If they win+14→ 1712
If they lose-10→ 1688
Thales LeitesNow 1744
If they win+10→ 1754
If they lose-14→ 1730

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.41
Sig. strikes / min
2.13
44%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
55%
Strike defense
53%
0.70
Takedown avg.
2.10
25%
Takedown accuracy
27%
80%
Takedown defense
31%
0
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Brad TavaresThales Leites
170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
2 (10%)
Submission
15 (54%)
14 (67%)
Decision
9 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Brad Tavares and Thales Leites within a point of even.

Thales Leites holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1698, a 46-point edge.

Brad Tavares enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brad Tavares finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.

Thales Leites carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.