Brad Tavares vs Tom Watson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-12-0Record17-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Brad Tavares is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tom Watson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1708
If they lose-14→ 1684
If they win+14→ 1649
If they lose-10→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brad TavaresTom Watson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brad Tavares75%
Tom Watson 25%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Brad Tavares a 75% favorite over Tom Watson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Brad Tavares holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1635, a 63-point edge.
Brad Tavares enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tom Watson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brad Tavares finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Tom Watson 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.