Combat Edge Intelligence

Branden Lee Hinkle vs Mahamed Aly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record5-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReach77"
230 lbsWeight205 lbs
Hammer HouseTeamOne Way Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Branden Lee HinkleNow 1569
If they win+16→ 1585
If they lose-16→ 1553
Mahamed AlyNow 1568
If they win+24→ 1592
If they lose-24→ 1544

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1586 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.61
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
69%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
26%
Strike defense
TBD
4.34
Takedown avg.
TBD
57%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
TBD
4.34
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Branden Lee HinkleMahamed Aly
155016002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (71%)
KO/TKO
4 (80%)
3 (18%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (12%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Mahamed Aly63%
Branden Lee Hinkle 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mahamed Aly a 63% favorite over Branden Lee Hinkle in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Branden Lee Hinkle's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1569 vs 1568), separated by just 1 points.

Branden Lee Hinkle finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Mahamed Aly 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.